Spire Squad Size – Misc – Model v2.1

This post is an extension of the main Model v2.1 article. Here we analyze in more detail the Spire squad size impact of just about everything else (misc) that is not included in the primary analysis. I assume that you’ve read the main post (and have done so recently 😉 ). So if you haven’t read it, please go and read it before continuing. Without that, this post will make little sense 😉

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Model v2.1 – Misc

Data

We don’t yet have any data on more exotic misc factors that might be in place as far as Spire squad size is concerned. And we might not need it if primary components are the only ones that impact the calculation. So watch this space, we may have something here if needed.

For now, this post is more of a collection/reminder of all the things that potentially may impact the calculation. We don’t really need to go here until we have a better handle on the primary components that are almost certain to contribute to the base Spire SS.

Classification

So outside of expansions, research and AWs, what else can possibly contribute to calculation? Well, here are some of these things in no specific order:

• Chapter – current Chapter number
• Main Hall Level – MH level; we have seen this in other calculations before – i.e. Trader’s collection bonus
• Number of Provinces – scouted, partially and/or completely negotiated
• Regular Squad Size – regular SS upgrades impact tournaments in quite material way, so it is possible these also factor into the Spire SS calculations
• Training Size – as another military variable, Training Size is a possibility
• Pop and Culture – pop and culture – total and/or available – can be a factor
• Ranking Points – ranking points might be a variable (outside of jsut impact of AW upgrades)
• Tournament Type – we know that different tournaments have very different difficulty, and types cycle over period of time; it is possible that tournament type plays a role in Spire SS calculations
• Playing Tournaments and/or Spire – playing tournaments and Spire produces rewards, ranking points etc, so it may play a role in the Spire SS calculations
• Temporary Military Boosters – Fire Phoenix feeding effect and expiring buildings like Dwarven Armorer, Enlightened Light Range etc
• Evolving Buildings – amounts, types, chapter and evolution levels of evolving buildings may have an impact on Spire SS calculation (similar to AW levels)
• Specific Buildings/Levels in the city – Spire SS may depend on existing and levels of any other buildings in the city

This list is certainly not exhaustive, but some of the items on the list are already pretty far-fetched. We’ll discuss some in the sections below.

Insights

We haven’t done any targeted data collection on any of the misc factors in the Spire squad size calculation. Yet, we can rule out some of the factors with a high degree of certainty.

Relatively certain conclusions

So what does this data tells us so far? Well, here are the things that we’re pretty certain about:

• Number of Provinces has no impact
  • Scouted, partially or completely negotiated, this doesn’t seem to have any impact on Spire SS at all (I have run a clean experiment with 10+ extra provinces). Unless contribution is vanishingly small, this is pretty much confirmed.
• Training Size has no impact
  • I don’t have a clean experiment on that, but over several months I almost doubled my training size, and didn’t see any unusual differences comparing to cities with stable TS
• Tournament Type has not impact
  • We have several datapoints when nothing in the cities changed week-over-week, and Spire SS hasn’t changed at all. If tournament type would be a factor, we’d expect some movement here.
• Playing Tournament and/or Spire has not impact
  • We have several datapoints when nothing in the cities changed week-over-week, but cities played deep tournament and Spire. Spire SS hasn’t changed at all, which is unexpected if playing either would be a factor.

Speculations

OK, now let’s speculate on some things 😉 We may not have enough data to be reasonably certain about any of those, but some may be more likely than others. So here we go.

Chapter

• [Possible, but unlikely]
  • We don’t have clean data on chapter advancement by itself. At the very least it is always conflated with research (as completing a certain research advances the chapter). However, there are reasons to believe that chapter is not a factor, at least not a material one. Transitioning from chapter 15 to chapter 16 did not increase Spire SS as much as jump from 15 to 16 would imply. That’s assuming that chapter is a multiplier in the calculation. Really clean analysis of chapter advancement is only possible after we figure out vanilla research contribution, so that we can detach the two.

Main Hall Level

• [Possible]
  • I have only seen one data point where MH level changed, and it was conflated with a few other changes. The increment was fairly small, but it was also a low-level city, so it is hard to say that it did prove or disprove anything with any degree of certainty. We need to see more data with MH upgrades. These experiments should be rather straightforward, but we have not seen them yet. So as of now, Main Hall Level impact is still a possibility.

Regular Squad Size

• [Possible, but unlikely]
  • It is hard to confirm or deny this one out without figuring out vanilla research contributions first. But given the fact that we do have fairly wide span of possible values here in the end-game cities (3K-4.5K range), and the fact that there is no obvious correlation between regular squad size and the Spire squad size (after correcting for other variables), I am inclined to think that regular SS is not a factor.

Pop and Culture

• [Highly unlikely]
  • While I haven’t done any specific experimentation here, I have been rebuilding my city quite extensively over a period of several months (after the chapter 15 end). This made both pop and culture go up and down quite a bit multiple times. Well, at least available amounts. And at no point during this period did I see any particularly unexpected movements (after correcting for other variables). Given that, I am almost certain that pop and culture are not factors.

Ranking Points

• [Highly unlikely]
  • While I haven’t done any specific experimentation here, I have been rebuilding my city quite extensively over a period of several months (after the chapter 15 end). I have built many AW levels and added some points from the map and from the tournaments. And at no point during this period did I see any particularly unexpected movements (after correcting for other variables). Given that, I am almost certain that ranking points per se are not a factor.

Temporary Military Boosters

• [Highly unlikely]
  • It has been confirmed that feeding Fire Phoenix has no impact. As for the expiring buildings, I have done different setups for different tournament weeks and at no point during this period did I see any particularly unexpected movements (after correcting for other variables). Given that, I am almost certain that temporary military boosters are not a factor.

Evolving Buildings

• [Unlikely]
  • While it is possible that presence of evolving buildings has an impact, so far there was no need to bring this into explanation of results. This is also not as easy to test as supply of unplaced evolving buildings with available artifacts is probably quite limited. So basically, we will only go here if we run out of options of explaining results with other variables. And we’re definitely not quite there.

Specific Buildings/Levels in the City

• [Highly Unlikely]
  • Similar to the point about evolving buildings above, I highly doubt it. I did upgrade a few military buildings after Chapter 15, and didn’t see anything particularly suspicious. Not a very scientific explanation, but still. Again, we will only go here if we run out of options of explaining results with other variables. And we’re definitely not quite there.

Possible Experiments

OK, there are some possible experiments that may shed some light on the impact of misc factors on the Spire squad size calculation. But by and large, I wouldn’t touch most of the items here until we get a better grasp of the primary factors (expansions, research and AW). It might be that this is all we need.

Some of the items here are even impossible to test in a clean way without figuring out other stuff (both chapter and regular squad size go together with research).

The only exception here is a Main Hall Level. This is both the most likely to have some impact and also possible to test in a clean way without touching anything else. So we can unlock research for several levels of MH upgrades, and implement a single MH level upgrade a week, without touching anything else. Ideally, this should be done in a somewhat leveled up city as it seems in low-level cities most of the increments are fairly small, and may be obscured by rounding noise.

In any case, if you have a city (or know someone 😉 ) like that, I’d like to hear from you! Either in comments, PM, or on US forums. It’s for science! 😉

Conclusion

And that’s it for the misc factors and their impact on the Spire squad size. For now 😉 We don’t need to worry about most of the items in this post just yet. We need to focus on expansions, research and AWs, and only then if that would be insufficient we can get back here. The only exception to that would be Main Hall Levels. This is something that I’d like to test relatively soon, so (hopefully) we can rule it out. Or bring it into the main fold 😉 So if you have a city where you can run some of the experiments outlined above – consider freezing that city for some time (in terms of unlocking research, placing the expansions, leveling AWs etc) to record data for this experiment. Let me know if you need any assistance with that.

I am certain we will revisit this when we’ll get more data.